It is well-advertised currently that Boeing & Airbus are struggling with delays and supply chain issues. Is this the golden moment that COMAC needs to succeed?
As will be explained in this feature, the Chinese manufacturer could open up a gap, but is dependent on a lot of variables.
With both external and internal struggles, the manufacturing space is going to be one to watch.
The Struggles From Boeing & Airbus…
Whilst the American planemaker’s woes have been more advertised, Boeing and Airbus have been struggling.
Yes, backlogs are extremely healthy at the moment, but supply chain issues and other aspects are affecting each business.
The American planemaker saw significantly lower deliveries due to the continued production issues at their plants.
Such production issues have spread not just from the Boeing 737 MAX, but also to the 787, with all of this delaying the upcoming 777X further.
As the Emirates President said back in February, they are very much in the “last chance saloon”.
Furthermore, whilst delivery numbers for Airbus in Q124 were better than Q123, their aircraft programs are suffering.
The Pratt & Whitney issues, coupled with overall delays in deliveries for aircraft, shows the strains that the European planemaker is facing.
We have seen the likes of Wizz Air & IndiGo, two big customers, having to cut capacity whilst Pratt & Whitney engines are checked.
Yes, this may not be an Airbus issue in terms of structural integrity, but it is straining them.
Such disruption is clear, when ACMI providers are recording major profits due to a need for aircraft.
The COMAC Question…
2024 has produced a theme in the manufacturing world, and that is that COMAC has been seen more on the international stage.
Against the likes of Airbus & Boeing, their C919 and ARJ21 aircraft have shown success in the China market.
From revealing an order at the Singapore Air Show, to China continuing to prop the program up via Air China, they are beginning to break through.
The first half of this year has been utilising the allure of Southeast Asia and it’s growing market as a launch pad for success.
As the Emirates President Sir Tim Clark says, COMAC “has a golden opportunity to move ahead an take advantage of supply problems from legacy manufacturers”.
And he is right. Backlogs are a lot lower than at Boeing and Airbus.
What that means is very simple. If you order with COMAC, you could get the aircraft a lot sooner.
Delivery backlogs with Airbus and Boeing go up to and beyond 2030, so airlines will be waiting for some time.
As we saw with United Airlines opting for Airbus A321neos because of the 737 MAX delays, we could begin to see more of that to the benefit of COMAC.
What About External Pressures?
If you put aviation, the European Union, the United States & China together as one, you get the following words: Trade conflict.
The last few years has been a rocky boat in terms of trading relationships between all sides.
Back in 2020, China was accused by the U.S of putting pressure on it’s domestic airlines not to abide by a contract to purchase Boeing aircraft as part of a trade deal made in 2020.
On top of this, this has forged stronger relationships between the EU and the US, particularly around trade subsidies.
They clearly know that China is trying to enter this duopoly market, and there is the chance they could battle hard for it.
And even just a couple of days ago. China has threatened to hit the EU’s aviation & agricultural sectors unless they pull back from an impending trade war.
So it is external pressures like this which could hinder the growth of COMAC into other markets.
If a trade war happens, thus will come sanctions. How the Chinese manufacturer would get through that is another question.
Will Farnborough Be The Next Test of This?
In the midst of everything going on on the world stage as well as what is going on with the supply chain and delays at Boeing and Airbus, there is an opportunity for COMAC.
The Chinese manufacturer has been at the Farnborough Air Show before, although with no orders revealed.
But at the moment, there is a desire from airlines to receive airplanes. Whether that will shift the political balance is yet to be answered.
If it is shifted, then COMAC has a golden opportunity to fill their backlog with more international customers.
So, with that in mind, can they thrive? Yes. Will they? That’s yet to be seen currently, but all eyes turn to China.
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