I love my mother.
Have I ever told you that?
My mom, just like your mom, is amazing. She’s a lot of things.
But one thing she isn’t: a Trudeau fan.
She’s the one who broke the news to me this week that January’s inflation data came in at a “surprising” 2.9%. Yes, although I work in real estate and live and breathe economic indicators, it was my mother who told me the news.
Her reaction was priceless, however.
“Oh wow, would you look at that; January inflation came in at 2.9%!” she said.
But before I could even muster a response, she added, “I can’t wait to see Trudeau’s victory tour with this number. He’s gonna take it and RUN WITH IT!”
So yeah, how about that, eh?
2.9%?
Damn, Gina!
I’ve never known a “Gina” but I sure know which 1990’s sitcom that comes from…
Here’s an up-to-date five-year chart of the Canadian inflation rate:
Wow. Almost back to the pre-pandemic pace, eh?
With the inflation rate back below 3%, surely we must be closer to quantitative easing by the Bank of Canada, no?
The “bets” are already being placed:
“Canada’s Inflation Rate Slows And Bolsters Bets On Early Rate Cut”
Reuters
February 20th, 2024
From the article:
It was the first time in seven months that headline inflation has dipped below 3%. That prompted money markets to hike bets for a rate cut in April to as much as a 58% chance from a 33% chance before the figures were published.
The January inflation figure “will certainly raise the odds on an April rate cut,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay.
We’re going to see a rate cut this year, despite what TRB readers, Jimbo and JF007 predicted earlier this year.
A 58% chance of a cut in April?
Oh, that’s something!
And when the second or third rate cut comes, look out, real estate market…
…sorry. I forgot, I’m not supposed to “hype.” Even though I’m right, er, that sounds conceited, so even though I’m not wrong, I don’t want to seem like I’m cheerleading this real estate market (which is on the upswing and will get even more of a boost when we see interest rate cuts and restored affordability in the market……..)
But like I said, I’m not going to go down that road.
The point I wanted to make today was that this conversation about inflation will lead to conversations about interest rates and all things mortgages, and for that, I want to bring my in-house mortgage broker, Tony Della Sciucca into the fold.
We are going to see a lot of mortgage renewals this year, as discussed on this blog already in 2024, and we’re seeing a lot of buyers in the marketplace struggling with the decision of whether to take a short-term hit on a variable-rate mortgage and lock into a fixed-rate mortgage in 12-18 months, or whether to take a 3-year or 5-year fixed.
There’s so much to discuss.
So please feel free to pose your questions to Tony in the comments section below.
I’ll sit down with Tony on Sunday for an interview and we’ll get his answers posted for a video blog on Monday.
